Luca Toni’s “sort of” apology

Martin Demichelis tries to sound like a leader, fails then decides to tell us where he’d rather be

File under: Double up on Dutch
Beckenbauer and Hoeness begin preparing the hard landing for Louis van Gaal. Bonus: Doctor’s comment on Franck Ribery’s teeth.

From “who are you going to get?” to “I’m about to get fired”

Beckenbauer and Hoeness actually admit an error! (Warning-translation is pretty bad, best to read auf Deutsch if able)

File under: Somebody loves me
Expect to see more Holger Badstuber at left back.

Meanwhile, Badstuber returns the love to his coach.

Irresistible force vs. Immovable Object:
Bayern Munich are set to take on table-topper Bayer Leverkusen at 9:30 a.m. Eastern on Sunday. The match will be shown live at ESPN360.com and on ESPN Deportes.

Although the visitors from the northwest haven’t won in Munich in 20 years, that seems to be about the only stat in our favor. It’s hard to find a lot of weaknesses in Bayer Leverkusen’s game, and it may be even harder to find something bad to say about them, considering our erstwhile coach Jupp Heynckes has finally molded this maturing group into a consistent, competitive team. In contrast to Bayern’s transfer flops, Leverkusen made moderate, targeted purchases with Sami Hyypiä and Eren Derdiyok, which have stabilized a suspect defense and softened the blow of losing Patrick Helmes to injury quite nicely. Leverkusen will be without Simon Rolfes and Renato Augusto due to injury, and though the club was a bit unlucky in two draws to Dortmund and Schalke, step-in Stefan Reinartz scored his first Bundesliga goal in the last match against Frankfurt. Be sure to check out the Bayer 04 Offside for more on the match.

Bayern and Louis van Gaal enter the match with backs now firmly planted against the wall, but that won’t help the injury situation very much. Ribery is still out and Arjen Robben is now rated “very doubtful”. So much for the amazing healing powers. In addition, Edson Braafheid and Danijel Pranjic are both said to have “seasonal flu”. Could it be transfer-seasonal flu? Ivica Olic is still a week away, although progressing nicely. Perhaps the best chance of Bayern scoring is the fear of Miroslav Klose, who was cleared to return to practice Thursday after several days in quarantine because his children had swine flu. You never know, Rene Adler may have a Howard Hughes like fear of germs.

3 points for 3 points
So, what can Bayern do in this match to come away with a desperately needed 3 points? These things seem so basic, and yet we haven’t seen much of them.
1) Maintain a sustained attacking tempo.
Too often we have seen a 7 or 8 minute buildup in possession and attack disperse too easily. I don’t expect to see end to end action, despite Leverkusen’s new found confidence. Slop and speculation in the offensive end needs to be curtailed. As always, Schweini will be a key measure of this.
2) Stingy Butt
It’s so perfect actually, because I do have two meanings here. I want to see Mark Van Bommel really pushing the limits and putting people on their rear ends. Despite Leverkusen’s adept dead-ball skills, Bayern ultimately stand to benefit from controlling the pace and intimidating the visitors. In addition, we’ll need the best out of Jörg Butt, who despite seemingly not holding much of a grudge against his former employers, ought to find a way to get mad at them for 90 minutes.
3) Make Lemonade
Continue to give Braafheid and Altintop opportunities. These are players who do have the ability to create off the dead balls, and since there is no natural playmaker on the field without Robben, the frees and corners become all the more important. The last thing I want to see is Toni/Gomez trotting on in the 70th minute to add a 3rd striker who flops around for 20 minutes creating nothing.

The Toni we need
Of late, it’s been Bayern’s own Toni Kroos who’s been garnering the headlines and the highlight videos for Bayer 04. With 3 goals in the last 5 matches, and two highlight reelers among them, the still-only 19 year old is progressing nicely. Of course there will be a danger that Kroos will never come back to Bayern, especially after his oft-promised future #10 was given to Arjen Robben. Undoubtedly, Rudi, Jupp, Uli and Christian will sit down for a little chat on the subject this weekend. However, I don’t think putting him on loan was such a bad idea at the time. At a basic level, Kroos needed to play. It’s perhaps only a shame that Bayer is not playing in Europe this season, although Kroos did get some seasoning the UEFA Cup campaign two seasons ago. Kroos gives his own rather unrevealing views to the official Bayer 04 website in an interview posted today.

Always looking forward
One thing to remember when pining for Toni Kroos-the great teams don’t just have potential stars, they have potential constellations. And while Bayern II may sit 20th and last in the 3. Liga at present, there are still things to get excited about. Presenting: David Alaba

Mobben?
Although there isn’t an exact statistical “aha!”, there is a very close correlation between the distribution of Thomas Müller’s assists and goals and Arjen Robben’s presence on the field. Through all the hype and all the focus on on our misfiring forwards, have we perhaps overlooked the possibility that this pair last seen as before and after pictures for hair restoration, may be able to rough up the competition without their 3rd camarade?

Man in the Mirror:
Last season, the Altintop brothers did not face off against each other in the Bundesliga. Done groaning? Hamit missed the first match, and in last spring’s match in Munich, Halil was subbed off just before Hamit was subbed on. Or at least that’s what the official records show, seems a little convenient from the prankster-analysis point of view. As Hamit has played a grand total of 3 minutes in the Bundesliga since September, their interaction may again be limited to exchanging trikots which conveniently already have the correct name on the back.

What I’m looking forward to:
With Badstuber, Holtby (declared fit by Magath on Thursday), Höwedes and Müller likely to all be on the pitch together at some point Saturday, with the 23 year old graybeard Neuer in goal, there’s going to be a whole lot of the future of German football on display. Let’s hope they all give us an early career highlight reel.

Number play(the section where I do get lazy and steal from Jan):

0: Number of matches Schalke has lost away this season.

0-1: The scoreline in Felix Magath’s first home match as Bayern coach versus Schalke

1: The number of European matches won this season by FC Bayern and Hertha Berlin.

3: The number of goals Bayern has allowed at home this season, but alas, the number of goals that Schalke has allowed away this season.

22: Number of days Franz Beckenbauer has left as president of Bayern Munich. Unless he declares himself president for life. Wouldn’t put it past him.

99: The number of Bundesliga matches Manuel Neuer has played going into Saturday, as well as the number of Bundesliga goals Kevin Kuranyi has scored going into this weekend. Let’s try to keep it to one milestone, fellas.

And from the “not that scheisse again” department:
218: Minutes since Bayern scored a goal, in all competitions.

Sort of stat of the week:
When you take a strictly goal per match average, Schalke has the best away defense in the league, but guess who’s second? I was surprised to find it was Cologne. Tied for third were Bayern and Wolfsburg.

The Prediction
Headline writers will be itching for a scoreline they can work with. 2-0 to Bayern, a magical return to form! 1-0 to Schalke, Van Gaal raus! Unfortunately for all of them, my call is 1-1.

With both Müller and Van Buyten suspended, Braafheid an injury doubt and Robben apparently not in the starting 11 plans, the group that takes the field is quite a question mark. Clearly, Martin Demichelis will step in for Van Buyten, and my best guess would be to see Altintop in the midfield. If Braafheid can’t go, it seems that Pranjic is probably the only option they have. I’d prefer to see Toni get the start with Gomez on the bench, just because I have a little more confidence in Gomez’s ability to create in the pinch. But, it’s hard to have a whole lot of confidence in anyone’s ability without Müller on the pitch as the spark.

Another day, another roster cut
This time, it’s Andreas Görlitz, as it was announced he will be allowed to leave the club in the winter break. It was 5 years ago today that Görlitz suffered the knee injury from which he seems to have never fully recovered. It’s very easy to forget this was a guy who was actually capped twice for Germany in 2004. Bayern gave him every opportunity to try to fulfill the promise he once had as a young player, but it was a bit surprising that he was brought back from Karlsruhe after a 2 season loan spell. He started regularly there, and maybe that’s the ticket for Görlitz going forward. Perhaps it’s better not to reflect on the player he might have been, but know that he will still have many years ahead playing in a different situation

But back to the business at hand. Babbel finds himself on somewhat similar footing to Lucien Favre before the ax fell in Berlin. After an improbable, (though admittedly less surprising) charge to the top of the standings in the 2nd half of last season for which he was given much credit, it may be his club’s inability to gel with new parts that has withered the spirit of last season’s rise. Babbel appears to be pretty far out on the plank, despite “votes of confidence”. This is a team that has lost 3 in a row in the league, and only managed to beat Freiburg and Frankfurt. And we know well that you don’t even need to be at your best to manage this feat. And while the numbers bear out that Stuttgart has indeed put forward effort, especially with regard to it’s last two losses against Schalke and Hannover, the squad looked sloppy and careless in its midweek Pokal loss to Greuther Fürth.

It won’t get any easy with the Bavarians coming to town, especially with Cacau and Sami Khedira out, while Ciprian Marica remains a question mark. Babbel has faced Bayern twice as Stuttgart coach, losing in humiliating fashion at home is last year’s DFB Pokal, and in Munich on the final matchday last season. You can track more of the story over at the Stuttgart Offside.

As for Bayern, the match will have special meaning for Mario Gomez, returning to his long-time home for the first time. Frankly, I’m a bit tired of young Bayern strikers being a little too sentimental for their old teams but perhaps we’ll be spared Mario laying face down and crying for Stuttgart if he actually scores a goal.

Almost lost in the shuffle of other news was the fact that Arjen Robben has been declared doubtful for the match. This seems a little bit surprising, considering he’s had a week to work up his fitness since the first Frankfurt match. Louis van Gaal indicated that he’d like to save him for the Bordeaux match, but frankly, I think Robben needs to be ready to contribute if the match is still competitive in the last half hour.

I expect Stuttgart to come out fired up, so the main thing is for the team to maintain its composure and not make any stupid mistakes in the first 15 minutes or so. Once we sustain the initial pressure, we ought to have the creativity and one on one advantage to produce the chances to win the match. I’m calling 2-1 for Bayern.

Demichelis drops turd in punch bowl
So after a 4-0 win in which we actually looked like Bayern, everyone’s happy right? Not so fast! Martin Demichelis didn’t take long to start complaining very publicly about his role at the club. First of all, let’s explain a few things to Micho. Comparing your situation to Mark van Bommel’s is like comparing Rotkohl and Spargel. For one, Micho, you are not the captain of the team! Your name is not Martin van Demichelis (don’t think that doesn’t make a difference!) I’m not at all certain Van Bommel would have come back into the lineup as quickly if it weren’t for the fact that we’ve been forced into playing a 4-4-2. Plus, you didn’t have to go play with the amateurs like Van Bommel and Toni were forced to do before coming back. And finally, are you really going to argue that your presence on the pitch is more valuable or deserved than Daniel van Buyten’s at the moment? Because I don’t think LVG is going to stick your right-footed ass in Herr Badstuber’s place. Ah, that’s better. Now, go help keep a clean sheet against Bordeaux and maybe we’ll think about letting you out of the Bayern Offside doghouse.

So begins our twilight-zoney pairing with Frankfurt, who we will see again midweek in the Pokal. From the injury desk, Bayern will be without Braafheid, Breno, Olic and Ribery. Robben’s status has not been declared publicly. He is said to be fit although Louis van Gaal has indicated that Robben won’t start under any circumstance. It remains to be seen whether LVG will use any shock-therapy type benchings as a response to Wednesday’s loss, but as I’ve indicated, I would like to see Schweini out of the lineup.

Eintracht comes into the match having defeated Hannover 2-1 last weekend. Of course, I never consider Hannover a useful measuring stick. That match was preceded by combined 0-5 losses to Schalke and Stuttgart. The club has shown a marginal improvement under Michael Skibbe, and an opening day defeat of Bremen seemed to establish some early confidence that has waned a bit. Frankfurt will be without forward Ioannis Amanatidis, their leading scorer. Greek compatriot Nikolaos Liberopoulos, himself a proven Bundesliga scorer, will likely take his place in a 4-1-4-1 formation for the visitors. However, let’s also keep in mind that Eintracht’s one goal against Bayern last season was scored by Martin Demichelis.

Once again, Bayern will likely be faced with a packed defense that will swarm to the back. The advantage may come from Frankfurt’s penchant for fouling. Their match with Schalke reads like a street fight. Not unexpectedly, their frequent fouling has contributed to 3 red cards so far this season. Whether or not an opponent gets sent off, expect more set piece opportunities this week than we saw against Cologne and Freiburg, and let’s hope we have the personnel on the field to take advantage of them. I’m expecting a spirited response from the squad and I’ll predict a 3-1 victory.

Why you shouldn’t panic
Following the Pokal match in Frankfurt and next weekend’s visit to Stuttgart, Bayern fall into a very fortunate scheduling situation: they will play consecutive Champions League and Bundesliga matches at home. Add to that an international week, and you will see that Bayern’s next away match is not until November 29..in Hannover. Essentially, an entire month at home. The only other away match on the Bundesliga schedule in this calendar year is in Bochum. Additionally, the best way to move up the table is by head to head victories over those above you. A win tomorrow may do very little in resetting the table, but beating Leverkusen and Schalke (and you may have fair skepticism about accomplishing that, I grant you) in those back to back home matches would do quite a bit to realign the table to a more familiar order. The tabloid press are really enjoying the Van Gaal-Klinsmann comparison right now. Well, there may be another. Starting October 18 last season, Bayern went on a 5 match Bundesliga win streak and didn’t miss taking a single point at home the rest of the calendar year. The streak began after the infamous Bochum debacle, in which two late goals gifted the visitors a point. All deficiencies considered, when you weigh being at home for a month, I think things are about to take a turn for the better.

Of course, the media can’t go through the buildup to this match without obsessing over Ze Roberto. You can read a paint-by-numbers interview with him at the official Bayern website. I only ask one simple question: has there been a single moment this season when you’ve said to yourself “I wish Ze Roberto were here”? I didn’t think so. A personnel move can be sentimentally wrong, but structurally correct. We did not need to tie up 2 seasons in a guy who was clearly declining in the 2nd half last season. He might make a nice contribution here and there for HSV, he already has. But HSV fans, of all fans, should be familiar with pointing at long-ticking clocks, but in this case seeing that time is not on their side.

Making some waves in the tabloids was Louis van Gaal’s decision to send Luca Toni back to the reserves for the weekend. Why this surprised anyone, I’m not sure. Toni had been sidelined a lot longer than Klose had, and clearly the Pokal match was not Toni’s finest moment. Let’s rejoice in the fact that we’re good enough to say “Luca Toni, eh, we don’t need him this week”.

When you look at a long term rivalry with so much match data behind it, it can be difficult to pick out what is meaningful. The next temptation then, it to write in the monster-truck rally promoter style, something like “throw out all the stats, this is going to be an all out brawl for the top of the league!” Well, that misses the point even more. So without any further ado, let me give you the stats that I think are most pertinent going into this match. In 6 Bundesliga matches, HSV has scored 7 goals within the first 15 minutes. Bayern on the other hand, have scored a big fat 0 in the first 15. Conversely, Hamburg have allowed 5 of their 7 goals in the 2nd half, while Bayern have, you guessed it, 10 second half goals on the season. Six matches is enough of a sample to give you a good sense of what game flow is like. If you’ve watched Bayern this year, you know they are especially slow starters. However, Bayern have the luxury of willfully adapting away from this tendency–simply by starting Robbéry. Meanwhile Hamburg, who have seen the injured Paolo Guerrero and the gimpy Ze Roberto score nearly half their goals, don’t have much other option than to put their trust into the Bergs and Elias of the world and hope the early scores continue. Something is going to change in these opposing dominant trends, and I believe Bayern have the greater ability to affect that change.

Key matchup: Eljero Elia vs Philipp Lahm
Lahm is our leader on the pitch in Van Bommel’s absence, and he is coming off what was arguably his most offensive-minded performance of the season against Oberhausen. He’ll need to play his best defensive match of the season to bottle up the speedy Dutch left winger. Perhaps LVG and Braafheid will have a few instinctual tips for containing the former Twente product, but keeping Elia out of the flow would go a long way towards denying HSV the ability to reform their suddenly ailing attack.

Prediction
Hamburger SV 1:2 FC Bayern Munich
By now, my prediction section is becoming pretty comedic. At least I predicted a significant header last week. I have the feeling that I’m not according enough respect to HSV based on recent results. They’re a good team, especially at home. But, I think we’re determined enough to be better.

You might be surprised to find out that 10 years ago, Bayern and RWO met in the Pokal semi-final! Goals from Jancker, Effenberg and Linke carried the day, and Bayern punched their ticket to Berlin with a 3-1 victory. But 1999 was the year of heart-wrenching Bayern defeats, and another one came on PKs to Bremen in the final.

If you look up and down the Oberhausen roster, you’re not going to see a lot of familiar names. The only one I recognized was Felix Luz, and I only knew him because I cast passing glances at the other higher division teams in Bayern (Luz played for Augsburg). While Bayern was busy breaking Nürnberg hearts, Oberhausen was busy making sure folks in the suburbs had something to celebrate, as they got shellacked by Fürth in the battle of teams with clovers in their logos, 4-0. Actually it wasn’t as bad as it looks, and Rot-Weiss did have a three-match win streak going before the loss. But, don’t think they should be optimistic or anything. Adding difficulty to an already monumental task, they will be without first-choice keeper Christoph Semmler. Captain Benjamin Reichert is also sidelined.

Bayern really lucked out getting a home match in the 2nd round, for the 2nd straight year. This match would really be an annoyance if we had to travel. Clearly, the boys are going to have their eyes on Hamburg..or Paulaner, so focus is really the key. The coaches and players are saying all the right things about not underestimating an inferior opponent, etc, but it really comes down to mentality in the moment. Will our starting 11 decide they don’t really want to mess around on Tuesday? Louis van Gaal will be tempted to rest some legs, but I think the best policy would be to trot out a familiar starting lineup, and let them take care of business in the first half. Let’s try to go into the break up a couple goals and then will be the time for Toni and Ottl and *gasp* Lell to see the pitch.

Prediction: FC Bayern 2:0 Rot-Weiss Oberhausen
LVG’s approach pays dividends, as the team comes out in serious mode, finds the net a couple times early on, and then puts us all to sleep for the next 60 minutes or so with uneventful football. Sort of a backwards version of the weekend match!

The team was given a well deserved day off on Thursday after their 3rd straight victory in all competitions, a 3-0 win over Maccabi Haifa to open the Champions League schedule. It appears we came out of the Israel trip without any new knocks. Demichelis, Van Bommel and Görlitz remain sidelined, but Miroslav Klose will theoretically be available, as he will practice with the team on Friday. Luca Toni is set to make his season debut…with Bayern II! The amateurs will have a little Bayern-Derby of their own Friday, 1 p.m. EST at the Grünwalder against surprising Jahn Regensburg.

Nürnberg played their best match of the season two matches ago at Stuttgart, a 0:0 draw in which they were probably the better team. They followed that up with their first victory, a less inspiring but effective 1-0 defeat of ‘Gladbach. Statistically, the Franconian outfit have managed to take more shots and control the ball better than you would expect for a team sitting on 5 points from 5 matches. They may take some time to break down. In contrast to Dortmund, this is a team that is terrible in the air, however. Expect this to be a week where one of Lahm’s looping crosses does some damage, or a corner leads to a sparkling header. Nürnberg captain Andreas Wolf’s status is up in the air for Saturday. After the Lell-like action of getting red-carded in a friendly, Wolf was suspended for two matches by the DFB. He is eligible to return this weekend, but had to break off training on Thursday with an injury. Striker Isaac Boakye is also due to miss the match for the visitors.

Key Matchup: Raphael Schäfer vs. the Bayern attack
Realistically, this is the kind of match that can only be salvaged for the visitors by a keeper’s great day in goal. Schäfer will need to bring some magic to the proceedings to carry his team. It can be done. Oka Nikolov pretty much earned a point for Eintracht Frankfurt by himself against Bayern in 2007. But I wouldn’t be betting on it this week.

Prediction: FC Bayern Munich 4:1 1. FC Nürnberg On paper, there is little reason to doubt that Bayern will dominate the match. Der Club has not come out victorious in Munich since 1992, and though last year was a bit of a fluke, Bayern have traditionally been almost unbeatable at home during the Oktoberfest.The final will probably hinge on how early on Bayern is able to break down what we can expect to be a very packed Nürnberg defense. Fitness will be a key here, but I don’t expect any problems. But, I’m not confident enough in our defense yet to predict a clean sheet!

This week’s match presents a good opportunity to break that streak. Dortmund captain Sebastian Kehl will miss the match due to injury, and rebound-prone keeper Roman Weidenfeller will deputize. Also, Kuba is a question mark after an injury sustained in a qualifier for Poland. If he can’t go, it will definitely take a bite out of BVB’s attack against Bayern’s left. Tinga will return to the defensive midfield, likely pushing former Bayern product Mats Hummels to the bench.

For Bayern, Miroslav Klose will not make the trip, a somewhat curious decision that to me at least, is not entirely explained away by his “needing fitness”. Van Bommel, Demichelis, Toni and Görlitz are out for Bayern, although Toni did resume practice on Thursday. Görlitz, who was expected to be out a couple of weeks, may not be as severely hurt as originally thought. However, this info probably only matters to Mehmet Scholl as LVG seem loathe to use Görlitz in any capacity.

Dortmund has really only played well in one match this season, and that was the opener against a very shoddy looking Cologne squad, who did them a favor by putting the only goal of the match into their own net. They’ve consistently trailed their opponents in possession time, and have done little with what crosses they have connected on. Dortmund does however, tend to win more aerial duels than most squads, a relative strength that Bayern will have to look out for.

Key matchup: Ivica Olić/Franck Ribéry vs. Patrick Owomoyela
Although it will be fun to speculate whether Robbery will start the match and how exactly they will slot in, I am expecting we won’t get a bigger dose of Franck on Saturday. The hard charging Olić ought to be able to twist Owomoyela into corkscrews all day, if Franck doesn’t. It was clear that Owomoyela was out of his league trying to handle Eljero Elia against HSV a couple weeks back. I look for the Bayern midfield to exploit either an inexperienced Kevin Grosskreutz or a hobbling Kuba and push the attack up the left to Olić. With Mario Gomez likely to face a physical battering in the center, and Arjen Robben likely to be swarmed at every opportunity, it will be Olić’s relentless pushes that should carry the day.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1:2 Bayern Munich
It’s a tough thing to win in Dortmund, especially for a team carrying some tired legs after an international week, but Dortmund’s problems outweigh Bayern’s at the moment, and two goals will be enough to win this match. I expect a very chippy, foul-ridden affair, but our quality should shine through.

Note: I will have to skip the live blog this match. I just can’t be certain that I’ll have working internet from the place I’ll be watching the match. I will try to confirm whether we’ll be up with the liveblog for the Champions League match as soon as possible.

In terms of DFB-Pokal 1st round exits, supporters of FC Bayern rarely have much to worry about. Not since calamaties against FV 09 Weinheim in 1990 and TSV Vestenbergsgreuth in 1994 (both clubs have since merged with others) have the Bavarian giants fallen in the 1st round. This year’s 1st round opponent, 6th division SpVgg Neckarelz hardly intimidates. The most entertaining thing about them may be that they have a striker on the roster named Sebastian Frey! So, considering the extreme unlikelihood of a competitive match, one’s attention may be turned to how first round match results influence overall Pokal success.

And while you might expect extreme punishment to be dished out by the eventual champions, the results have been quite different in two of the last 3 years. Here are the first round results for the eventual Pokal winners in the last 5 competitions, eventual winners in bold.

2008-09: 08 Eintracht Nordhorn 3-9 SV Werder Bremen

2007-08: Wacker Burghausen 1-1 FC Bayern Munich (Bayern wins 4-3 on penalties)

2006-07: BV Cloppenburg 0-1 1. FC Nürnberg

2005-06: MSV 1919 Neuruppin 0-4 FC Bayern Munich

2004-05: TSV Völpke 0-6 FC Bayern Munich

So both Bayern and Der Club demonstrated that a shaky start does not necessarily doom a club to an early Pokal exit. And while with Klose available to play, it may look like Bayern can win the match 20-0 (if you consider the 10-0 beatdown of Stuttgarter Kickers), recent history would tell us that a strong but not overwhelming result is most likely.

Thanks Luke!!