Mobben?
Although there isn’t an exact statistical “aha!”, there is a very close correlation between the distribution of Thomas Müller’s assists and goals and Arjen Robben’s presence on the field. Through all the hype and all the focus on on our misfiring forwards, have we perhaps overlooked the possibility that this pair last seen as before and after pictures for hair restoration, may be able to rough up the competition without their 3rd camarade?

Man in the Mirror:
Last season, the Altintop brothers did not face off against each other in the Bundesliga. Done groaning? Hamit missed the first match, and in last spring’s match in Munich, Halil was subbed off just before Hamit was subbed on. Or at least that’s what the official records show, seems a little convenient from the prankster-analysis point of view. As Hamit has played a grand total of 3 minutes in the Bundesliga since September, their interaction may again be limited to exchanging trikots which conveniently already have the correct name on the back.

What I’m looking forward to:
With Badstuber, Holtby (declared fit by Magath on Thursday), Höwedes and Müller likely to all be on the pitch together at some point Saturday, with the 23 year old graybeard Neuer in goal, there’s going to be a whole lot of the future of German football on display. Let’s hope they all give us an early career highlight reel.

Number play(the section where I do get lazy and steal from Jan):

0: Number of matches Schalke has lost away this season.

0-1: The scoreline in Felix Magath’s first home match as Bayern coach versus Schalke

1: The number of European matches won this season by FC Bayern and Hertha Berlin.

3: The number of goals Bayern has allowed at home this season, but alas, the number of goals that Schalke has allowed away this season.

22: Number of days Franz Beckenbauer has left as president of Bayern Munich. Unless he declares himself president for life. Wouldn’t put it past him.

99: The number of Bundesliga matches Manuel Neuer has played going into Saturday, as well as the number of Bundesliga goals Kevin Kuranyi has scored going into this weekend. Let’s try to keep it to one milestone, fellas.

And from the “not that scheisse again” department:
218: Minutes since Bayern scored a goal, in all competitions.

Sort of stat of the week:
When you take a strictly goal per match average, Schalke has the best away defense in the league, but guess who’s second? I was surprised to find it was Cologne. Tied for third were Bayern and Wolfsburg.

The Prediction
Headline writers will be itching for a scoreline they can work with. 2-0 to Bayern, a magical return to form! 1-0 to Schalke, Van Gaal raus! Unfortunately for all of them, my call is 1-1.

1) I looked at Frankfurt’s goal about 7 times on replay, and the best that I can come up with, is that it really was a freakish chance. Maybe Lahm gave up on his pursuit a little easily, maybe Van Bommel and Van Buyten were a little clumsy and slow to react, but overall, that was just a weird one.

2) I expressed a lot of frustration with Bastian Schweinsteiger in this space last week, and in the liveblog as well. I will continue to do so, until he finds some consistency in his game. His slow and sloppy play on Saturday was a major contributor to a scoreless first half. It continues to be all or nothing with Schweini, and I’m not sure what can be done to get him back to the consistent form that he has shown in the past. On the other end of the spectrum, a not quite ready for prime time Arjen Robben was ready enough. He more or less stole a goal from Gomez (ok, maybe Mario would have found a way to muff the rebound too), but his appearance changed the whole pace of the match, as we’ve come to expect.

3) As was well discussed in the liveblog, our set piece play is awful. There isn’t a lot of point in penetrating and earning frees and corners if the team doesn’t know what it wants to do with them (see Schweini and Tymo) or doesn’t execute them well (see Van Buyten, Pranjic, and to a lesser degree, Badstuber). I’m not sure what can be done to improve it, aside from Ribery scoring more amazing goals like the one in Dortmund.

4) Almost universally, those of us in the liveblog were incredibly disheartened by Louis van Gaal’s decision to sub in Demichelis for Toni. It seemed to be a “let’s not lose the 1 point” substitution. None of us realized that he was actually putting Van Buyten forward, and I watched it again to see if I had just been distracted. As it was, Daniel hardly appears on-screen in the broadcast until the 2nd goal is scored. So, this may be a case where a spectator might have had a better idea of what was going on than an international TV viewer. At any rate, LVG deserved neither praise nor scorn for the substitution. Of course, he’s a genius if it works. And he’s an idiot if it doesn’t. Not that he would ever admit the latter. So, the goal was luck, but not pure luck. Any statistical analysis bears out that Bayern had a ton of chances throughout the match, and to some degree that indicates making a lot of your own luck.

5) Strangely, it would be easy to skip over the man of the match: Thomas Müller. Of course, his skillful header set up Daniel van Buyten for the game winner, but it was his cross in to Gomez that set up the equalizer as well. When he is not the only one finishing chances, he seems to be the only one setting them up. After a rocky, foul-ridden start, he straightened out his game and was the best player on the field again for Bayern.

Pokal-Spiel live on ESPN 360
You will not be seeing a rerun! Wednesday’s German Cup match at Eintracht Frankurt will be shown live on ESPN 360, and we will be running a liveblog here at the Bayern Offside. Continental Europe is only 5 hours ahead of the Eastern time zone this week, so the match will take place at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. There is a chance we’ll be able to pipe a feed of the match into the liveblog. So those of you without ESPN 360, please come by, and we’ll try to accommodate you! We should see the same starting 11 for Bayern.

In the news
With all the stories swirling around Schalke’s possible emergency fire sale, it was only a matter of time before the Manuel Neuer rumors started again. Günther Jauch (who made an appearance in this space as the graphic presence of the “Who Wants to be a Goal Scorer” entry), claimed he had a good source that told him that Neuer to Bayern was a done deal in the winter break. Felix Magath was quick to deny it once again. Whether Jauch, who is not exactly a Gelsenkirchen insider is on to something or not, I think the story of this transfer is not if, but when.

Reunion with Klinsmann this weekend?
With Stuttgart falling prey to Fürth in the Pokal on Tuesday, the Markus Babbel death-watch is on. Babbel still has a job as of this writing. Although Marcel Koller seems to be the most frequently-linked name to the Stuttgart job, some sources are pointing to a meeting between Klinsmann and Stuttgart President Erwin Staudt. Ok, this is probably the worst kind of rumor mongering, but maybe the only thing better than seeing the lame duck Babbel on the sideline against us on Saturday would be the confused-looking Klinsmann trying to put Alex Hleb in touch with his inner chi….or something.

Martin Demichelis will also stay behind in Munich, apparently jet-lagged from his trans-continental voyage from Argentina, although at least he is not also dealing with the post-traumatic stress syndrome of not qualifying.

I hate October transfer rumors. I hate even talking about transfers in October. That usually means, your team really sucks. But, this post needed a little filler, and so the latest and probably meaningless Breno loan rumor involves Juventus. What I do find worth talking about is this: it is pretty apparent that Breno will need to be loaned out, but where should he go? Bayern have a history of loaning out defenders within the Bundesliga. It worked with great success in Lahm’s case, perhaps not as much in Görlitz and Lell’s. I certainly expected we’d be seeing Mats Hummels in red this season at the time we loaned him out, nevertheless, I suppose that is a success of a different sort. At any rate, I think Breno ought to stay in the Bundesliga. I would take it as a sign he will be sold if he’s actually loaned to a foreign side. What do you think would be a good team for him come January?

2) As I was watching Ribéry and Robben sprint side by side down for the third goal, it made me think of this tangentially related scene. We’ve got to come up with the right nickname for these guys. I’m not sure I like “Robbery”. Rib-Rob, which immediately reminds me of “Jib Jab” (but not enough to create an old-timey animation of Arjen and Franck), seems like it would catch on better with Germans at least. “7-10 split” seems like it could carry some weight. Please weigh in with your ideas guys, this is a creative group, and now is the time, before some annoying moniker we all hate takes hold.

3) The most encouraging thing is, I believe this match could have been won without Ribéry and Robben. We saw a lot more stability out of the defenders, Tymoschuck had one moment where he was too late getting back and allowed Dzeko a free header, but was otherwise solid. The difference yesterday was, we went from competent to stellar with our playmakers on the field.

4) Perhaps the only player on the field who didn’t improve over the Mainz match was Ivica Olic. And yet, you’d be really stretching things to say he had a bad day. He was adequate, nothing more, which was just fine on Saturday.

5) The once heir-apparent to the 10 jersey in Munich, Toni Kroos, had an assist on the game-winning goal for Leverkusen, just 6 minutes after coming into the match. Kroos has remained mostly in the background this season, he was subbed in after the 80th minute in the two previous league matches. Perhaps Saturday’s effort will see him increase his playing time, but following the Robben acquisition, it seems more likely that Kroos’ loan spell has a better chance of becoming permanent. Meanwhile, Bayern’s last #10 also played the part of hero in the dying seconds on Sunday.

6) Almost lost in the excitement of the victory was the goalkeeping change. Hans-Jörg Butt replaced Michael Rensing in goal, after playing in the mid-week friendly. At that time, I was convinced he was simply getting some playing time in a meaningless match, but LVG stated on the club’s website that he will go forward with Butt. Say what you will, about how much a good offense makes a good defense, but Butt kept a clean sheet against one of the fiercest attacks in the league. However, he might owe that to Philipp Lahm’s clearance off the line and well constructed posts as much as to his own performance.

7) Champions League Group A roundup: Maccabi Haifa overcame a deficit, scoring 3 goals in the last 23 minutes of the match for a 3-1 victory at Hapoel Raanana. Juventus has defeated AS Roma by the same count, and Marseilles hosted Bordeaux in a Ligue 1 showdown..which ended like so many of them do over there, 0-0.

8. Multiple sources have indicated that the Rafinha transfer rumor is dead. It seemed to be more than a rumor on Saturday, when Kicker broke the story. Rafinha would have been a much more logical transfer to have undertaken right when the window opened. You’ve got to wonder what those conversations with Magath are like on these topics, there’s got to be some interesting psychological dynamics.

9) Saturday was also a banner day for FC Bayern II. Mehmet Scholl and company got their first victory of the season, defeating recent DFB-Pokal opponent Wuppertaler SV, 3:1, surely to the chagrin of the entertaining proprietor of the Abseits Guide to German Soccer. Despite the Robben debut scheduled for just a couple hours later at the Allianz, 1,700 turned out at the Grünwalder.

10) I wasn’t looking on my calendar when I kept talking about “next week, next week”, as next week is an international week! Bayern will be back in action, September 12, at Dortmund, with a start time of 9:30 Eastern. As you look ahead on the schedule, the weekend of September 26-27 sees the club visiting Hamburg. Although not officially announced by the DFL yet, that match in Hamburg will almost surely be played on Sunday be played on Saturday at 12:30 EST. So, adjust your American college football watching schedule and other commitments accordingly!

Update: 15:45 CET. TZ, which seems to have had a bead on this story from the start, is reporting that it’s a done deal. German version of their reporting here, Google translation here Only caveat here is that, as we know from Diego, when dealing with player-fathers as agents, you never know till pen meets paper.

TZ-Online is reporting that Bayern have interest in acquiring another Real Madrid star–Arjen Robben! No one Everyone else seems to have picked up this particular story, though rumors are swirled all over the English press about a Robben move to Manchester United, or possibly Liverpool. I can’t make a lot of sense out of it, but I would have a nickname for him: “Santa Cruz Jr.” Make sure you stop by a little later today, we’ll hope to have some analysis up about the Champions League Draw (our last time in Pot 1?), and hopefully it will be more sophisticated than “Oh $*&, 3 teams we can’t possibly defend against!”. Cheers, bis bald.

Miro Klose and Jose Ernesto Sosa were added to the injury list after a practice squad collision. If they are unable to go, Alex Baumjohann may be forced into the starting 11, with Thomas Müller up front. Another possibility would be to push Ivica Olić into the starting lineup along side Gomez, with Müller playing behind them. Van Gaal seems to be ruling out any starting role for Franck Ribéry, if in fact he is fit enough to be in the squad.

Transfer rumors continue to swirl around Luca Toni, the latest have him moving to West Ham. Christian Nerlinger has vehemently denied the rumors in the Munich press. Meanwhile, Breno’s rumored move to Fiorentina may be on permanent hold after the Demichelis injury.

Jogi Löw named his roster for the August 12th World Cup qualifier in Baku. Not surprisingly, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Klose and Gomez will all be making the trip.

FC Bayern II will play away against Carl Zeiss Jena in a 3. Bundesliga match set for Sunday at 7 a.m. Eastern time. Mehmet Scholl and company will try to pick up their first win of the season. Scholl also turned up in a list of “100 most popular Germans” published by Bild this week.

02. Unfotunately, Zé Roberto will be leaving Bayern. He and the team couldn’t come to terms on a new contract. Bayern had offered a one year extension, the same deal they gave to Captain Dutch, but Zé declined the offer.

03. Everyone knows Bayern are in serious need of a goalkeeper. The situation has been bleak and it’s clear that Rensing isn’t quite ready for the top spot at Bayern. Perhaps he could go somewhere else and get some experience, but whether it was inexperience or too much pressure of following the great Oliver Kahn, Rensing couldn’t get it done. In light of that, Bayern have set their sites on Schalke and Germany keeper Manuel Neuer.

04. Captain Dutch, Mark van Bommel, the object of all my affections, has helped lead his National Team to the World Cup games and also leads the rating of Dutch midfielders. van Bommel is the first of Bayern’s players to have his team in WC2010 after the Netherlands beat Iceland 2-1.

Van der Vaart now ranks 7th in the rating of Dutch midfielders, which is led by Bayern Munich’s Mark van Bommel. Van Bommel scored the winner against Iceland and earned 12.53 rating points to boost his tally to 138.05 points over all.

05. Daniel van Buyten is unhappy at Bayern and might actually want to leave.

“The people at Bayern have to make clear whether they still need me or whether I’m surplus to requirements. I feel like other players get way more chances to prove their worth. I’m sick of warming the bench and I’m ready to move on,” stated Van Buyten to Kicker.

There are rumors of Bayern being a little leary to let him go based on the fact that Franck Ribery wants him to stay. If he goes, it will make Ribery unhappy and rumor has it that they don’t want to make Ribery unhappy.

06. The possibility of Ribery being unhappy if van Buyten goes, leads me to the latest move for Bayern. Danijel Pranjic of Dutch top flight side SC Heerenveen has agreed to terms with Bayern, but the players team has not yet agreed 100%. So while a deal looks to be in place, it isn’t a done deal yet. If Bayern are able to get a deal with Pranjic he would join five others this season including Mario Gomez, Ivica Olic, Alexander Baumjohann, Anatoliy Tymoschuk and Andreas Görlitz. Görlitz is not a new signing, but he will be returning from a two-year loan to Karlsruhe.

All of the new things will happen under the new coach, Louis van Gaal.

“The most important transfer is the coach,” Germany international Philipp Lahm was quoted as saying in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The full-back is looking forward to working under Van Gaal. “He’s synonymous with a certain way of playing. I’m certain he’ll demand organisation and discipline, and give us clear tactical instructions,” Lahm said.

So here’s to a new season, new coaches, new players and hopefully a better played team.

“We are in talks with Cologne and when I return next week we will reopen these talks, I think we will reach a solution by the end of the month. There are only small technicalities to put in place. I think we will manage it.” Hoeness told ZDF.

He also brought up the subject of much speculation lately: Anatoly Timoschuk. Bayern have only held informal talks with the Zenit St Petersburg captain. If things progress, it is likely that Lukas Podolski may get his wish and he will be let go to Cologne. But, he will have to wait until the end of the season since their mid season replacement hopes were dashed when Mario Gomez picked up an injury. The news that Podolski will stay comes after Franz Beckenbauer had said that the club was ready to sell him for £13million. Whenever Podolski comes up for bid, Cologne will have first option on him. And, Cologne couldn’t be more excited to renew their love affair with the Prince. Woflgang Overath is very excited. “We have done our homework. We’ll be doing everything — and I mean everything — in our power to bring the boy back home.” Maybe not now. It’s like being on a merry go round. Round and round we go. Please, for the love all things good in this world, let the poor boy go. It is time for Bayern to realize that this isn’t a healthy relationship and Poldi has long ago said it’s over. Let the break up sink in already. It’s clear he doesn’t love them and never will so stop hanging on and clinging to him like a crazy psycho ex-girlfriend. And just how will Cologne be able to afford bringing their Prince home? Oh, that’s easy. Investors so they can raise the money to bring him home.

Also, in the winter break, Rummenigge said that they will talk to Mark van Bommel (*throws confetti and squeals like a girl), Ze Roberto and Bastian Schweinsteiger in order to renew their contracts which end at the end of the season. Rummenigge suggests that Bayern would like for all three to stay on after this season. Meanwhile, Boudewijn Zenden is keen on making a move to PSV, especially if a certain Dutch boy returns. “If men like (Mark) Van Bommel and (Andre) Ooijer also return, it will get even more interesting. However, PSV have reportedly given up on trying to sign the Captain. They want him back and Mark is clearly pleased by this, but after the club has told everyone that there will be no players leaving, PSV are just lying in wait to see if they will get my favorite flying Dutchman back in their folds. I will not be able to express my glee if Mark re-signs with Bayern. If this does happen and a post shows up here that is complete jibberish and all capital letters, just know it translates to Angela is weepy with joy and picking her heart up off the floor since she was prepared for it to be shattered into a million pieces with his departure, but is now completely relieved and overcome with happiness that the Dutchman will be staying on.

When it comes to Schweinsteiger, Juventus are keen to sign him and with them eligible to speak to him starting January 1, you can bet they will be first in line. Juventus have made it no secret that signing Schweinsteiger has become a priority. However, as much as Bayern insist they must keep Schweinsteiger, Real Madrid are also keen on him and Rummenigge has admitted that Bayern will be fighting a losing battle if Madrid want him as Bayern doesn’t have the spending power that they do.

Speaking of Schweinsteiger, he has spoken about the match this weekend against Hoffenheim. “Hoffenheim have nothing to lose. If they win then all of Germany will be laughing at Bayern. If they get a point then the nation will grin. And if they lose then nothing will happen.” Schweinsteiger went on to say that Bayern losing to Hoffenheim would make them the laughing stock and that Bayern would face much humiliation if they walk away with a loss.

And since we’re speaking of Hoffenheim, I may as well mention that Beckenbauer has admitted that Bayern may try and make a bid for Hoffenheim’s star striker, Vedad Ibisevic. Not at this particular moment, but in the near future. When speaking about Ibisevic, Beckenbauer had big words to say about him. “He is not only a good player on the counter-attack, but someone who is continually dangerous in the box. I can’t think of any reason that he wouldn’t keep scoring for Bayern. Quite the opposite in fact, he would have more chances to get a shot in. That has been our biggest problem, we have wasted too many chances.”

Yeah, you can say that again Beckenbauer.

On top of that, there is much interest in van Buyten and I hate to see him go. It’s no big secret that he’s one of my favorites. I wouldn’t blame him for leaving… he’s under-utilized and under-appreciated with his current club, but I don’t want him to see him leave for purely selfish reasons.

Other transfer rumors include the departure of Lucio. I don’t know why he’d leave. No matter how bad he screws up he never gets benched so I’m not sure why he’d consider playing elsewhere. But he did cast some doubt over his future at Bayern. “I don’t have any particular plans because I want to concentrate on the season, but only dear God knows what happens afterwards. I have a contract until 2010. But I don’t know what will happen after the summer.”

If the transfer rumors are true, van Bommel, van Buyten and Lucio will be gone by the end of the season at the latest. Ze Roberto is definitely out at the end of the season. Podolski wants to be gone. And it looks like Bayern are already looking for a replacement in Landon Donovan as he joined Bayern for some MLS offseason training. His official website had this quote: “I am pleased that Jürgen Klinsmann and Bayern are giving me this chance to get to know their new performance center and stay fit alongside their great international footballers.” Could he be arriving at the end of the season if Podolski does indeed get the opportunity to leave? Jansen already left. Kroos is making noise that he wants to leave because he’s unhappy. Schweinsteiger may make Bayern pony up if they intend to keep him after 2009 when he becomes a free agent. Schweini has yet to renew his contract with Bayern and while he says it would be nice, he also says playing abroad would be “very attractive”. AC Milan, Juventus and Inter have all contacted his agent about a possible move from Bayern.

Klinsmann has arrived and Bayern has started to fall apart internally. Players that formerly wished to see their career end at Bayern are now having second thoughts and are trying to get out of their contracts. Players that formerly adored and praised Klinsmann and his tactics no longer seem happy and no longer seem to want to stand by him and play under him. Bayern are falling apart at the seams after an extraordinarily successful season under Hitzfeld and a rough start under Klinsmann. Discontent seems to be the chorus in Bavarian since the new coach took over. Coincidence?