Previews of Several Things

By: phil | December 15th, 2011

First things first – the draw for the Round of 16 in the 2011-2012 UEFA Champions League takes place tomorrow morning. As we briefly discussed last week, FC Bayern is one of the eight #1 seeds, and will face off against one fo the #2 seeds in the Round of 16. We can’t play against anyone from our own DFB (Leverküsen), nor from anyone who was in our Group-stage crowd (SSC Napoli). Therefore, here are the possible next round opponents, along with a brief run-down on each:

- Basel

Not a terrible club, and their win over Manchester United proves that they can be tough at home. Still, this would be an incredibly favorable match-up for Bayern. Aside from hometown hero Alexander Frei, Basel doesn’t have many threatening offensive players, and they’d probably be sitting back in a defensive shell for most of the two legs. Also, the trip would be easy – about 400 KM by road.

- Lyon

Tougher than Basel, though Bayern would still have to be considered heavy favorites. They have knocked top clubs out of this competition before, including Real Madrid. They somehow got rid of Miralem Pjanic (one of my favorite players), but they still have some class, with Lisandro Lopez and Michel Bastos leading a South American contingent, and Gourcuff, Briand and Hugo Lloris as their natives. Whoever is drawn against Lyon is going to have enough to keep them busy.

- Marseilles

Another French club, but I know less about these guys. Looking at their roster, they have a few notable names, including a lot of African internationals. When is the next round of the African Cup of Nations? Maybe they’d have some guys missing (or at least fatigued). I’d rank these guys a half-rung below their countrymen from Lyon, but I don’t know much about the French game.

- AC Milan

Probably the toughest of the possibilities. FC Bayern would be favored against them, but the have talent at all levels. Also, a lot of Bayern-specific sub-plots: Mark van Bommel vs. his old club, Kevin-Prince Boateng against his half-brother, and Gustavo against several of his Brazilian teammates.

On a related note, Silvio Berlusconi apparently pulled his dick out of an underage prostitute for long enough to comment on the latest Carlos Tevez. It seems that Silvo thinks Tevez is a lock for Ballon d’Or if he comes to Milan. Why don’t you go back to bed, old man.

- CSKA Moscow and Zenit St. Petersburg

I know rather little about these two clubs, so I’ll lump them together. Zenit has Bruno Alves and former Udinese man Aleksandar Luković, so they seem to have the makings of a stout defense. In either case, travelling to Russia in February is really tough – not just the weather, but the time differences, playing at night, and even just the act of getting there. Bayern would probably have enough talent to outclass either club, but strange things can happen in Russia in the winter.

Anyway, if you can’t get to a TV or internet feed tomorrow, check in here and we’ll update the draw as soon as we can. I don’t know why, but I have a hunch we might be drawn against one of those French clubs. And if we do, those Frogs are out of luck.

Meanwhile, we also have a Bundesliga match tomorrow. We kick off against Köln tomorrow at 2:30 PM Eastern in the USA, 7:30 local time at the Allianz Arena. The match will be broadcast live on ESPN Deportes, and we’ll be here with a Match Day Thread.

The Line-Up

Absences continue to hinder FC Bayern, as we’re without several key players. Ribery came up with a knock at the end of the Stuttgart match, and is doubtful for tomorrow. There was some hope that Bastian Schweinsteiger might make a surprise early return, but it now looks like he’s going to wait until the new year (probably a good idea).

So, we’re left with a familiar problem up front: if we figure that Gomez, Müller, Kroos, Robben and one of the Gustavo + Tymo pair will play, we have either a hole in the midfield (if Kroos plays up top behind Gomez) or a hole on one of the wings (if Müller takes that middle/second striker role). The possibilities include:

- playing Alaba on the left wing

- playing Tymo and Gustavo next to each other in the midfield

- bringing Usami off the reserve roster to play on the wing

- something crazy, like giving Rafinha a run in the midfield (he did play there a bit for Genoa)

Along the back line, Lahm, Boateng, and Badstuber should all be ready to go, with either van Buyten or Rafinha (with Boateng then moving to CB) rounding out the defense.

The Opponent

Köln’s offensive engine is obviously Lukas Podolski. Lucky Luke is currently the second-most-deadly striker in the league, behind only Mario Gomez. He has several huge goals this season, including 5 in the last 3 matches. The end of this clip has him leveling with a late long-range strike last week vs. Mainz.

Some pretty crappy ‘keeping on both of those goals, in my opinion … still, you can’t give Podoski an inch of space. He’s always had a good shot, but these days he can wotk from a wide angle as well as from an up-top position. He also uses both feet pretty well. The best thing about playing against him, though, is that he isn’t very patient, and you can get him frustrated into making stupid decisions (at least from my memory).

Behind Lukas, Köln relies on Christian Clemens, the young German midfielder, and Slawomir Peszko, the Polish playmaker. Peszko has 6 assists in all competitions this season, and has good quickness and a nice touch. Neither of these guys is a world-class player in his own right, but if you send 3 guys to follow Podolski everywhere he goes, these two can at least take advantage of the open space.

Final Notes

- I am going to start utilizing “Chat-an-Go” applications for match-day chat, but I’m not sure if I can do it by tomorrow. If I get enough done at work, we’ll have a full match-day chat. If not, definitely when we come back from the winter break.

- Despite weeks of rumors regarding his possible exit, Heynckes says Arjen Robben will be going nowhere – the club hopes to sign him to a long-term deal over the winter.

- Apparently, David Villa broke his lower leg in the Club World Cup match today. I never want to see anyone get injured, and we hope that Villa can eventually make a full recovery and be back to 100%. But … man, it would be cool if he got back to 100% after the Champions League season, no?

Big day tomorrow. A favorable draw plus a win vs. Köln would be a nice kick-off for the winter break, and would certainly bode well for 2012. Thanks for reading.